Who really is the GOAT of tennis
The ‘Greatest Of All Time’ debate has resurfaced following Novak Djokovic’s 3 gram slam wins throughout the course of 2021. Djokovic’s win against Daniil Medvedev in the Australian Open Final, his legendary comeback from 2–0 sets down against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the French Open and finally his come from behind Wimbledon win against Matteo Berrettini now gives him 20 grand slams, right at the top alongside tennis royalty Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. Other names such as Pete Sampras and Rod Laver have also been thrown around over the years as being the greatest players ever. To see who really is the GOAT (Greatest Of All Time), I think it is best to do a ranking system based off 9 key stats. The criteria for this include the following:
1. Grand slams won
2. ATP Titles won
3. Records against other great players
4. Overall winning percentage
5. Ability to play on all surfaces
6. Highest Peak
7. Longevity
8. Eye Test
9. Quality of Opposition
Straight off the bat I think it is fair enough to narrow it down to 3. These 3 comprise of Nadal, Federer and Djokovic in no particular order. This is nothing against Pete Sampras or Rod Laver but I just don’t think they are quite at the level of the other 3. This is demonstrated by how Sampras and Rod Laver only won 14 and 12 grand slams respectively. Sampras also has a strikingly obvious weakness which was clay corroborated by how he never made a French Open final. I also believe that the whilst it is hard to compare and contrast eras, Rod Laver and Sampras were less dominant than the big 3 playing today who are all up against each other in fierce battles. Again, obviously the tennis now is better since tennis has become a bigger sport and there is more advanced technology to help athletes evolve which is why I decided to base it off the factors mentioned above since they equalise eras.
Now it is time to discuss the big 3 of tennis: Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.
Based off the first criteria of number of grand slams won, all 3 players are completely equal with 20. In all likelihood, Djokovic probably will overtake Federer and Nadal based off a number of factors such as form and overall health but for the purpose of this article we’ll do it based off right now. This gives all 3 players 3 points to start off.
Next up is the number of ATP titles each of them have won where Federer is on top with 103 despite having the worst finals record of the 3 with 65.6%, Nadal is next on 88 with a finals winning percentage of 70.4% and finally Djokovic is on 85 with a finals winning percentage of 70%. For the purpose of this experiment, we won’t be looking too much into finals winning percentages but rather the titles but it’s something to keep in mind. So here Federer gets 3 points, Nadal 2 and Djokovic 1.
Since records against the other great players is the easiest way to cross-check who is the best player, this will be rated out of 6 rather than 3. Based off the stats already mentioned earlier, this may surprise some people but Djokovic has the better record over both Federer (27–23) and Nadal (30–28) whilst Nadal has a significant edge over Federer (24–16). While this may seem like conclusive evidence, it is also dependent on other factors such as if they all played each other in their prime. For example, Federer peaked earlier than both Nadal and Djokovic and thus is more likely to have a worse record. Nonetheless, I think it is still a good measure since you have to beat the best to be the best. So, we have Djokovic getting 6, Nadal with 4 and Federer 2.
Moving onto overall winning percentages, Federer has recorded the worst winning percentage with 82.0% whilst Nadal is just on top with a percentage of 83.16% compared to Djokovic’s 83.13%. However, since these 2 are so close I think it is reasonable to give them both 3 points and give 1 to Federer. The dangerous thing about winning percentages is that they can make players like Federer who isn’t playing at a very high level anymore seem worse than he actually is. Still, since we are basing it off their whole careers, I think winning percentages must be taken into account.
Since we have now looked at the number of grand slams and ATP titles each player has won, overall winning percentages and the records each of the big 3 have against each other, I think it would be best to look at who is the best player all-around player on all surfaces as a means of nullifying the effects of someone being more dominant on some surfaces and not on others. Unsurprisingly, Nadal comes in last here since he was won 13 grand slams on clay, 5 on hard court and 2 on grass. He also has the worst winning percentage on hard court and grass with 78% on each. It is then very close between Djokovic and Federer where Djokovic has won 12 grand slams on hard court, 5 on grass and 2 on clay and Federer has won 11 on hard court, 8 on grass and 1 on clay. Whilst Federer has a better winning percentage than Djokovic on grass (87.4%-84.1%) and hard court (84.3%-83.5%), his record on clay is much worse (75.9%-80.4%) accentuating a weakness on clay which is less apparent with Djokovic. This is very close but I think I’ll give the edge to Djokovic because he has 2 French Open titles and also is just an overall better clay court player than Federer as delineated by his 17 clay court titles compared to Federer’s 11.
To see who really is the GOAT, it is necessary to have a look at who the best player was at their best (highest peak). The way this will be ranked is by how many grand slams won in a short amount of time as well as taking into account my memories of the players during these times. Federer’s peak was the earliest of them all and I think it is fair to say his was from the start of 2004 through to the end of 2007 where he won 11 out of a possible 16 grand slams. Even more impressively, he was almost like a bridge between the eras of tennis with one side including the likes of Agassi and Sampras and the other including the likes of Nadal and Djokovic. During this time, Federer was basically unstoppable on hard court and grass and was tearing up the world with his classy play. His play through these years was probably the most aesthetic of anyone anywhere at anytime. Nadal’s peak is probably the hardest to judge since the one time that he won 3 grand slams in a year (2010), his previous and following seasons he only won 1 grand slam. This, in conjunction with the fact that he has never won 2 grand slams for 2 years in a row gives me no choice but to put him last in this category. Further, I don’t think he was as dominant as Federer and Djokovic during their primes. Djokovic is an interesting one because it is almost as if he has had 2 peaks ranging from the start of 2015 through to mid-2016 where he won 5 out of a possible 6 grand slams and then again from Wimbledon in 2018 through to the present time where he has won 7 out of 11 grand slams and looks destined to win more. Drawing from these stats, I am going to give Federer 3 points since he was the most dominant anyone has ever been during a 4 year span, Djokovic 2 and Nadal 1.
Longevity is probably the hardest one to rank out of them all since it is quite difficult to determine when someone started playing at the top of their game and when they dropped off. Since Federer won 16 of his 20 grand slams from Wimbledon in 2003 through to the Australian Open in 2010, I think it is fair to say this 6 and a half year span is his prime. Shifting to Nadal, he has won at least 1 grand slam from his first French Open title in 2005 apart from 2015 and 2016 which he missed with injury. Lastly, Djokovic has won a grand slam every year since 2011 and there is no sign of stopping anytime soon. From this, I think it is fair to give Nadal the edge and then give 2nd to Djokovic since he has won a grand slam for 11 years straight compared to Federer’s 8.
Eye Test: This is almost completely subjective but for me the player that my eyes tell me is the best is Federer with his exquisite level of elegance and class that he brings to the court every time he plays. His serve and volley is far better than both the others and his strokes are simply unbelievable. Next, I have Djokovic due to his ability to always stay in points with incredible defence whilst also possessing the best backhand of the 3. Getting 1 point here is Nadal mainly because I think his serve and volley and backhand are the worst of the 3 and he seemingly doesn’t exude as much class or grit as Federer or Djokovic. In saying this, he probably pulls out the most miraculous shots of them all but my eyes tell me he isn’t as gifted as Djokovic and Federer.
There are probably lots of you screaming at the screen right now saying Djokovic had harder opposition than Federer and Nadal because he had to play them in their prime to which I agree so Djokovic will get another 3 points to make up for the harder opposition he had to go up against. Then, 2 points will go to Nadal since he had to play Federer in his prime at the beginning of his career whilst Federer got to play against weaker players than Nadal and Djokovic when he won his titles such as Agassi, Safin and players who didn’t win many/any grand slam finals such as Hewitt and Baghdatis. Therefore, Federer will get 1 point here.
After all that investigation, time to add up the totals!
Overall Leaderboard:
1. Novak Djokovic- 24 points
2. Rafael Nadal- 20 points
3. Roger Federer- 19 points
There you have it- Based off my rating system, Novak Djokovic is the GOAT by a reasonable margin and the scary thing is that out of these players, Djokovic is the furthest away from stopping.
